I. Risk Management (Reduction)

Crisis & Emergency Management Centre

www.cemac.org -- www.crisis.be

REDUCTION: Risk Management



(Risk) Reduction is the first stage of the Emergency Management Circle in the 4R-model.


The aim of these activities is to limit the number of risks and to develop a coherent and optimal

strategy to manage risks.


The final component of Reduction is the conception of major scenarios in preparation of the actual emergency planning.


Reduction is composed of:

  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Management Strategy Development
  • Risk Mitigation - Prevention
  • Major Scenario Development

Risk Assessment


We perform all-hazard qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative(*) risk inventory, analysis and evaluation.

Traditionally we use the IRIAM-CTM-methodology because it is directly linked with our emergency planning tools and combines the best of existing techniques from the EM and BCM world. Other techniques can of course be used if required by a client or by legislation.

The aim of risk assessment is to "get a feeling" of relevant risks, their possible impact and how an organisation can respond to them.


The IRIAM-CTM-methodology is a very easy, almost intuitive approach that results in the creation of a paper or digital catalogue of relevant risks, contributing factors, an estimation of the consequences using 4 criteria, interdependencies, response times (RTO and MTO) and various other variables.

RYSKITM, the predecessor of IRIAM-CITM, developed by CEMAC, has served as basis for a project for local risk assessment for the Belgian authorities and is compatible with the UN's APELL methodology.


(*) Quantitative analyses are done with the assistance of parnter organiations.

Risk Management Strategy Development


Once the risk assessment has been done, the major issue is: what do we do with the risks?


Ideally risks can be eliminated (prevention), but for most risks this is not an available option.

Alternatives can be:

  • Mitigation: reduction of the impact
  • Transfer: to another level in the production chain or to someone else in society
  • Insurance: which is a specific and formal form of transfer of the consequences
  • Emergency planning: prepare for the incident to happen


    In most cases the choice will not be A or C or B but a mix of the available measures.

    CEMAC assists in the development of the optimal mix. To do this, we can also call upon risk management experts from some of the leading Insurance brokers worldwide.


Risk Mitigation - Prevention


Prevention or taking measures to limit the impact of an incident is a creative and sometimes technologically complex thought process.


CEMAC assists organisations in this process by using its extensive experience in a wide range of projects and industries or by accessing its vast network of risk-, industry- or technology specific experts.

Major Scenario Development


Finally, our core knowledge lies of course also in the development of major incident scenarios.

We use a standard inventory of 53 generic safety / security-oriented scenarios as the basis for the development of specific scenarios to correspond entirely to the specific risks and other caracteristics of the client.


In our approach of scenario development we differ considerably from traditional "risk assessment / risk management consultants" in that we do not take probability of event into the equation.

Emergency planners use P(A)=1 !

Our 4R Model